SBP sees forex reserves at $25bn by June 2027

October 26, 2026 (MLN): The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) expects its foreign exchange reserves to rise to $23 billion by December 2026 and $25 billion by June 2027, from $21.5 billion now, Governor Jameel Ahmad said on Monday.

Speaking at the press conference after the central bank raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 12%, the Governor noted that reserves had fallen below $3 billion in February 2023.

He said the recovery had come mainly through dollar purchases from the market rather than borrowing, and that external debt had risen by only $5–6 billion over four years.

Keeping the reserve momentum going was essential for economic stability, he added.

The rate increase is the SBP’s second this year, after a 100bps hike to 11.5% in April 2026. It held the rate at that level at its June, July and September meetings.

The Governor said GDP growth is expected to remain within the 3.5–4.5% range. The outlook for sugar, rice and maize crops is better, while cotton’s is weaker, and agriculture overall is expected to perform better, he said.

He added that fiscal buffers had improved recently.

The decision matched the most common expectation in a Mettis Global survey of market participants, in which 44.4% had forecast a 50bps increase.

Overall, 58.7% of respondents had expected a hike, while 41.3% expected no change.

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