Power Division hits back at APTMA over IGCEP criticism

September 30, 2025 (MLN): The Ministry of Energy (Power Division) has strongly rebutted criticism from the All-Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) regarding the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), terming the industry body's comments as "flawed and devoid of factual position."

In a detailed statement issued by the spokesperson for Power Division, the ministry defended its electricity planning framework while acknowledging the importance of transparency and constructive debate in improving the country's power systems.

The Power Division highlighted that the IGCEP 2025-2035 represents a major transformation in Pakistan's power sector planning, focusing on affordability, transparency, and long-term sustainability.

According to the spokesperson, the revised plan achieves an estimated $17 billion in savings by reducing approximately 7,000 MW of committed projects from previous IGCEP iterations. The plan also translates into preventing a Rs4.96 per unit increase in future electricity costs, the ministry claimed.

Responding to APTMA's concerns about demand forecasting, the spokesperson emphasized that the methodology employed is "time-tested and vetted by international consultants." The Global Forecast utilizes regression modeling where GDP growth and electricity price serve as key independent variables, capturing economic activity and consumer behavior.

The ministry clarified that contrary to APTMA's claims, population growth is not used as a primary driver in the forecasting model. Instead, various scenarios are prepared with statistical tests ensuring inconsistent or spurious relationships are eliminated.

Additionally, the spokesperson noted that demand forecasts are verified through bottom-up approaches. Under Grid Code 2023, every Distribution Company prepares forecasts using feeder-level data and planned load from homes, industries, and consumer categories, incorporating rooftop solar, captive generation, and energy efficiency programs.

The Power Division stressed that IGCEP 2025-2035 prioritizes indigenous resources including hydro, solar, wind, and nuclear power.

This strategic shift aims to reduce Pakistan's dependence on imported fuels like coal and liquefied natural gas (RLNG), potentially saving billions in foreign exchange while strengthening energy security.

The ministry also confirmed that distributed solar and substitution effects are explicitly considered in the current IGCEP iteration, refuting claims to the contrary.

Addressing concerns about higher capacity costs, the spokesperson explained that Pakistan has strategically added nuclear and local coal projects in recent years to achieve least-cost and energy security objectives. While these projects carry higher fixed costs, they deliver lower energy costs overall.

"The IGCEP evaluates total costs, ensuring consumers benefit from lower overall tariffs while energy security improves and fuel imports decline," the statement read.

The ministry emphasized that expensive projects not needed under current circumstances have been excluded from the plan, while strategic projects exceeding least-cost parameters are subject to the Least Cost Violation methodology, with excess costs borne by the sponsoring agency.

The Power Division also highlighted that electricity planning must account for more than just present demand. The IGCEP framework considers a 20-year horizon, reflecting growth projections for cities, industry, electric transport, cooling needs, and emerging technologies.

"This is why the Grid Code provides a transparent, consultative, and evidence-based framework for demand forecasting," the spokesperson stated.

The ministry reaffirmed its commitment to ensuring that future electricity plans remain realistic, reliable, and affordable, supporting Pakistan's long-term growth and energy security objectives.

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