Petrol braces for hike, diesel set for massive drop

June 05, 2026 (MLN): After weeks of relative relief for petrol consumers, shifting global oil market Dynamics indicate that petrol prices are on track to climb, while High-Speed Diesel (HSD) rates are poised for a massive drop.

According to the latest working data dated June 10, 2026, the international pricing benchmarks have flipped. Petrol is expected to rise by around Rs10.24 per litre, while High-Speed Diesel (HSD) is projected to witness a substantial reduction of Rs19.10 per litre in the upcoming fortnightly review.

Petrol is facing upward pressure due to a spike in global premiums and import costs. On the other hand, diesel has registered a steep decline on the back of falling global product values.

Motorists currently paying Rs377.78 per litre for petrol should brace for an increase at the pumps.

Although the basic cost of product (CnF) dipped slightly by $1.06, a substantial surge in the import premium, jumping by $4.70 per barrel, pushed the overall Free on Board (FOB) value up from $123.01 to $126.65 per barrel.

This international increase pushes the local base cost up by Rs6.32 per litre. Furthermore, custom duties are calculated to rise by Rs3.79 per litre.

The net derived ex-refinery price shows an upward variance of Rs10.24 per litre. Unless the government absorbs this increase by lowering the petroleum levy, petrol retail prices are highly likely to breach the Rs385 mark.

Major Relief in Sight

In a massive turnaround for the transport and agriculture sectors, diesel prices are headed for a heavy reduction, reversing previous upward fears.

Global diesel benchmarks have slid sharply. The FOB price dropped by $6.41 per barrel, falling from $158.63 down to $152.22 per barrel as both product costs and premiums fell.

This drop translates to an Rs11.31 decrease in the base product cost per litre. Additionally, consumers will benefit from an Rs6.11 reduction in custom duties and lower incidental charges.

The final derived ex-refinery price for HSD shows a substantial downward variance of Rs19.10 per litre. If fully passed through to consumers, retail diesel rates could tumble well below Rs365 per litre from the current Rs380.78.

The final retail price adjustments will depend heavily on the final exchange rate realizations, though the USD exchange rate remained remarkably steady, moving slightly from Rs278.62 to Rs278.55, alongside any statutory modifications to oil marketing margins or government taxes before the official notification on June 12.

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