Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Defence Agreement: Navigating Complexities, Divergences, and the Road Ahead

By Fahim Ahmed

Introduction

The announcement of the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement marks a significant milestone in the ties between these two Muslim nations. The agreement reflects a deep, long-standing fraternal bond and represents an effort to deepen security cooperation amid an evolving and uncertain regional security landscape, especially following shifts in traditional power dynamics since October 2023.

However, beyond public declarations, essential questions about the agreement’s exact purpose, leadership dynamics, policy divergences, and practical implementation demand careful scrutiny to understand its realistic potential.

Unclear Purpose: Central Threats and Strategic Ambiguity

A fundamental ambiguity surrounds the agreement, the absence of a clearly defined strategic threat or core purpose.

Officials have yet to explicitly state whether the agreement aims to protect Saudi Arabia against aggression from Israel, Iran, or other regional actors; to provide military support or reinforcement in ongoing conflicts such as Yemen; or to safeguard shared religious heritage, territorial integrity, and promote wider regional stability.

Without clarity on these questions, ambiguity surrounds the agreement’s scope, contributing to fragmented public understanding even as detailed operational planning and parameters are developed behind the scenes.

The agreement’s first practical engagement, whether through joint military exercises or in response to a real-world crisis will likely crystallize its true scope and solidify its operational framework.

Both governments would benefit from greater transparency on intended threat perceptions and roles to build diplomatic clarity and public confidence.

Leadership in Security: Pakistan’s Operational Primacy

The vast differences in military capabilities, defense infrastructure, and experience raise natural questions about leadership within this partnership. Saudi Arabia’s financial strength, regional influence, and diplomatic clout are vital assets, providing essential political backing and economic support necessary for sustained engagement.

However, Pakistan’s well-established, nuclear-capable military, strategic expertise, and frontline combat experience position it uniquely as the operational lead.

Islamabad brings the essential capability to project power and execute the agreement’s core mandate of collective defense.

For success, the partnership must recognize Pakistan’s leadership role in military operations while valuing Saudi Arabia’s complementary contributions in logistics, finance, and diplomacy.

Clear institutional mechanisms should empower Pakistan’s command without sidelining Saudi Arabia’s indispensable support, preventing ambiguity or inefficiencies.

Lessons from NATO: The Importance of Dominant Military Leadership

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) offers a useful analogy where the United States’ overwhelming military and financial dominance enables unchallenged strategic direction.

NATO’s cohesion and readiness largely stem from this primacy, allowing swift coordinated action despite diverse member interests.

Likewise, the Pakistan-Saudi alliance’s effectiveness will rest on empowering the party with the dominant military capability—Pakistan—as the primary guarantor of security, with Saudi Arabia reinforcing through its vast resources and diplomatic influence.

Shared Interests and Divergent Policies

Common Security Goals

Both nations align on priority fronts including counterterrorism, protection of Islamic holy sites, and ensuring regional stability. These foundations solidify the alliance.

Yemen Conflict Divergence

In 2015, Pakistan’s refusal to join Saudi Arabia’s military intervention in Yemen illustrated significant divergence. Despite Riyadh’s appeal, Pakistan’s parliament chose neutrality, balancing delicate regional relations—including ties with its next-door neighbor Iran—and domestic sectarian sensitivities.

This episode reveals challenges in harmonizing military commitments under the agreement, underscoring the need to accommodate differing national priorities.

Israel-Palestine Positions

The two countries maintain different approaches to the Israel-Palestine issue. Pakistan continues its firm non-recognition of Israel and advocates unequivocally for full Palestinian sovereignty.

Saudi Arabia, while publicly supporting Palestinian rights, has taken a more pragmatic route by engaging in discreet diplomatic overtures toward Israel, linking potential normalization to progress on peace negotiations.

Navigating this delicate divergence requires diplomatic finesse to sustain cooperation without alienating domestic constituencies on either side.

Global Alignment and Geopolitics

Pakistan’s posture embodies a nuanced balancing act. While aligned closely with China via initiatives like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and close military-to-military engagement, Islamabad remains significantly reliant on West-dominated IMF and World Bank assistance to manage its persistent financial crises—a dependence highlighting its economic vulnerabilities.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia’s security and diplomacy remain firmly situated within the US-led Western framework, relying on American military protection and diplomatic networks.

These divergent global orientations add complexity, demanding continuous diplomatic calibration.

Pakistan-India Conflict: A Protracted Strategic Challenge

Pakistan’s longstanding rivalry with India, rooted in the unresolved Kashmir dispute dating back to 1947, remains a core pillar of its national security concerns.

The conflict over Kashmir has defined their bilateral relations through wars and ongoing tensions. Pakistan’s appeals for Saudi Arabia’s support over its Kashmir stance have largely gone unmet, adding strain to their partnership.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has developed expanding economic and strategic ties with India, which occasionally complicates its relations with Pakistan—particularly given Islamabad’s sensitivity to Riyadh’s growing engagement with New Delhi on political and economic fronts.

Domestic Security Concerns in Pakistan

Pakistan continues to grapple with a surge in terrorism and internal security challenges, intensified by the aftermath of the May 2025 conflict with India.

Recent years have seen a sharp rise in militant attacks, particularly in regions like Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, where groups such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan and Baloch separatists remain active.

These escalating security threats have sapped public confidence, with widespread skepticism about the effectiveness of counterterrorism efforts.

In this tense environment, the announcement of a foreign defense agreement understandably triggers anxiety among the Pakistani public, who fear the risk of entanglement in conflicts beyond Pakistan’s strategic interests.

Transparent and consistent communication from the government is essential to assuage these concerns, clarify Pakistan’s defensive posture, and prevent misinterpretations that could fuel instability or unintended escalation

Democratic Legitimacy and Public Perception

Notably, Pakistan’s parliament has yet to formally endorse the agreement, raising issues of democratic legitimacy and political sustainability. Without legislative scrutiny, the deal risks political contestation and public mistrust.

Clear parliamentary engagement and transparent public communication are vital. Saudi Arabia too must reassure its citizens that the partnership respects Pakistan’s sovereignty and democratic norms, emphasizing mutual respect and shared history.

Recommendations for Success

1.     Clarify the agreement’s purpose and threat perceptions openly.

2.     Secure parliamentary approval in Pakistan.

3.     Clearly define Pakistan’s military leadership role complemented by Saudi Arabia’s resources and political clout.

4.     Manage policy divergences diplomatically.

5.     Support Pakistan economically to sustain defense commitments.

6.     Develop joint operational protocols including training and intelligence sharing.

7.     Commit to transparent communication to manage public expectations in both countries.

Conclusion

The Pakistan-Saudi Arabia Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement offers a historic opportunity to deepen cooperation and bolster regional security.

Yet its success rests on resolving foundational ambiguities, managing policy differences, securing domestic legitimacy, and balancing competing geopolitical affiliations.

Handled with pragmatic openness and strategic patience, the agreement could evolve into a durable pillar of peace and collective security in one of the world’s most volatile regions.

The writer is a former Investment banker

Disclaimer: The views and analysis in this article are the opinions of the author and are for informational purposes only.