Oil steady as OPEC+ pauses output hike

November 04, 2025 (MLN): Oil markets showed little movement on Tuesday as OPEC+ opted to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, keeping a close eye on global supply-demand dynamics.

Brent crude futures went up by $0.73, or 1.12%, to $64.16 per barrel.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures decreased by $0.83, or 1.36%, to $60.22 per barrel by [2:15 am] PST.

On Sunday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, approved a modest output increase for December but decided to maintain steady production levels in the first quarter of next year.

Since April, OPEC+ has raised output targets by approximately 2.9m barrels per day around 2.7% of global supply but slowed the pace from October amid ongoing concerns of oversupply.

Bank of America analysts noted that the decision shows OPEC+’s acknowledgment of potential oversupply and signals an attempt to prevent oil prices from dropping below $50 per barrel, a threshold likely to reassure investors.

Meanwhile, top executives from Europe’s leading energy companies challenged predictions of a supply glut in 2026, citing rising demand and easing production constraints.

U.S. Department of Energy Deputy Secretary James Danly also dismissed fears of a surplus next year, suggesting a more balanced market outlook.

Sources within OPEC+ indicated that Russia advocated for the output pause, citing difficulties in boosting exports due to Western sanctions.

In October, the U.S. and the U.K. imposed restrictions on Russia’s major oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. Despite these measures, JP Morgan analysts stated that sanctions would not prevent Russian oil producers from continuing operations, although they acknowledged an elevated risk of supply disruption.

Traders are now awaiting U.S. crude inventory figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API), expected later in the day, to gauge near-term market trends.

Preliminary polling by Reuters suggests U.S. stockpiles may have increased last week, adding another layer of uncertainty for oil markets.

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