NEPRA pulls plug on KE’s profit outlook

October 24, 2025 (MLN): Pakistan’s sole privatized utility, K-Electric (PSX: KEL), has been hit by a regulatory volte-face that could jeopardize its long-awaited profitability.

Barely three months after approving its Multi-Year Tariff (MYT) for FY2024–2030, the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has made sweeping revisions that alter KEL’s financial DNA, from its currency-linked returns to its performance benchmarks.

The revisions, prompted by review motions from the Ministry of Energy and other stakeholders, marked a turning point for the country’s power sector.

They set new rules that could push K-Electric from profit to peril as the tide turns against the utility.

Dollar Dreams to Rupee Reality

The most consequential change lies in KEL’s Return on Equity (ROE). NEPRA has stripped away dollar-linked returns for the utility’s transmission and distribution segments, aligning them with other state-run utilities such as NTDC and STDC.

Source: NEPRA

While the generation function retains its 14% USD-based return, NEPRA introduced a hybrid take-and-pay model, guaranteeing dispatch for only 35% of capacity from November 2025 onward.

The remaining output will depend on system demand, effectively pulling the plug on easy returns.

According to Topline Securities’ estimates, the transmission business will also be impacted by quantum of Rs3-4bn per annum.

Tightening the Screws on Losses

If return cuts hurt, the real bleeding may come from the regulator’s draconian new benchmarks on transmission, distribution, and recovery performance.

 Source: NEPRA, Topline Securities, AKD Securities

The regulator’s rationale? NEPRA wants K-Electric to “operate at par with public DISCOs,” arguing that the utility’s system modernization, through projects like ADMS and ELR, should already be yielding lower losses.

Recovery Ratio Realignment

The regulator has now mandated 100% bill recovery across the control period, eliminating previously allowed collection margins that ranged from 6.75% in FY24 to 3.5% by FY30.

Source: NEPRA

Topline Securities estimated that every 1% recovery shortfall costs KEL nearly Rs5bn.

The shift from the earlier 93.3% to a 100% benchmark could thus wipe Rs15–16bn in annual earnings, a painful reality for a utility operating in areas with chronic payment defaults.

Old Plants, New Problems

In another blow, NEPRA has discontinued tariffs for four aging gas-based plants, BQPS-I, KCCPP, SGEPS, and KTGEPS, citing redundancy due to new grid interconnections.

As per AKD Securities, this decision cuts KEL’s capacity charges from Rs73.6bn to Rs60.8bn, while removing protection under its RLNG take-or-pay contracts beyond December 2025.

Fuel Cost Adjustment

NEPRA has revised the reference fuel cost downward from Rs 15.99/kWh to Rs 14.50/kWh, retroactively applied to FY24.

This correction at Rs28bn, will force KEL to refile past monthly FCAs, further tightening cash flows, as AKD reported.

Source: NEPRA

The average consumer tariff has also fallen to Rs 32.37/kWh, down from Rs 39.97/kWh, a Rs 7.6/kWh cut that directly impacts the company’s top line.

Financial Fallout: Back to Red Ink

According to AKD Securities, the new determination could create a negative earnings impact of Rs79bn, or a loss per share of Rs 2.9 for FY24.

Topline Securities estimated the losses of Rs 2.6–2.7 per share in FY24 and Rs 2.0–2.2 per share in FY25, assuming no generation tariff revisions.

In short, what was meant to be a profit turnaround story has turned into a regulatory storm.

What Lies Ahead

K-Electric is reportedly reviewing the decision and may seek regulatory or legal remedies.

The utility’s Chief Executive Officer, Syed Moonis Abdullah Alvi, has voiced serious concerns over the “large-scale reductions and modifications” made to the framework within just a few months of its original issuance.

In a statement, Alvi said that the tariff announced in June this year was finalized after two and a half years of detailed consultations, data verification, and regulatory scrutiny, involving multiple independent sources.

“The Multi-Year Tariff, which was issued after two and a half years of deliberation, has been completely changed in just a few months,” he remarked.

The CEO added that the company is now reviewing the implications of NEPRA’s revised tariff to determine how operations can be sustained under the new financial parameters.

“We are evaluating the situation to understand how K-Electric’s operations can continue effectively in light of these changes,” Alvi said.

He further cautioned that large-scale cuts in the MYT could impact electricity consumers, despite the company’s ongoing efforts to absorb the shock internally.

For investors, the takeaway is stark: until K-Electric narrows the gap between regulation and reality, the lights on profitability may remain dim.

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