Higher gas prices set to lift E&P earnings

September 07, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan’s exploration and production (E&P) companies are set for a positive earnings impact after wellhead gas prices for several fields were raised by up to 15.8% for the second half of 2026, according to Topline Securities.

The brokerage estimates that gas prices for companies operating under the Petroleum Policy 2012 (PP2012) could increase by around 10–11%, reflecting the sliding benefit mechanism under the policy.

The revision follows a sharp increase in international oil prices, with the average Arab Light price rising to $92.2 per barrel during January-June 2026, compared with $68.4/bbl in the preceding six-month period, an increase of around 35%.

Under the semi-annual pricing mechanism, the higher oil price average feeds into wellhead gas prices for July-December 2026.

Topline Research said the latest revision represents an average increase of around 8–10% across the notified fields and is positive for E&P earnings, although the impact has already been incorporated into its forecast assumptions.

Among the notified fields, the highest increase was recorded for Chachar Lease Area, where the wellhead gas price rose to $2.02 per mmbtu from $1.75, up 15.8%.

Gas prices for Bhit and Badhra fields in Kirthar increased 15.4% to $4.45/mmbtu from $3.86/mmbtu.

Prices for Fazl X-1 Hala, Rayyan-1 Kirthar, Shahdadpur Gambat South and Dhok Sultan X-1 increased by around 9.8%.

The price for Rizq Kirthar and Rehman Kirthar fields increased by around 6.7%, while Adam X-1 Well Hala saw a marginal 0.4% increase.

Topline noted that notifications for some fields have been issued, while revisions for the remaining fields are expected to follow.

The brokerage said slight variations could emerge for certain fields because their pricing calculations are based on different six-month oil-price periods.

Overall, the higher wellhead prices are expected to provide a tailwind to E&P sector earnings in the second half of 2026, particularly for companies with exposure to the affected PP2012 fields.

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