FY27 PDL collection target seen at Rs1.7tr

MG News | May 29, 2026 at 04:27 PM GMT+05:00

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May 29, 2026 (MLN): The government is projected to collect around Rs1.73 trillion through Petroleum Development Levy (PDL) in FY27, showing a 17.8% year-on-year increase, according to Arif Habib Limited.

The target remains achievable; however, it may require increasing the combined PDL on Motor Spirit (MS) and High-Speed Diesel (HSD) from the current level of around Rs160 per litre to nearly Rs180 per litre.

The base-case outlook assumes no significant growth in MS and HSD sales volumes, as elevated fuel prices could suppress demand and potentially trigger a resurgence in fuel smuggling, particularly in border regions.

Nevertheless, any improvement in fuel consumption driven by stronger economic activity, lower global oil prices, reduced retail fuel rates, or stricter anti-smuggling enforcement could support higher PDL collections and reduce the need for aggressive levy increases.

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