Daily pricing to close the loophole on fuel supply games

July 20, 2026 (MLN): The shift to daily, Platts-linked petroleum pricing is expected to reduce volatility and eliminate several structural inefficiencies that have long affected Pakistan's downstream oil supply chain.

Under the weekly pricing regime, price expectations often drove supply behaviour rather than actual demand, with oil marketing companies (OMCs) and retail pumps adjusting lifting patterns in anticipation of a revision.

When a price cut was expected, refineries and pumps typically slowed or withheld uplift in the days before the change, particularly on Thursdays and Fridays, to avoid inventory losses. This created artificial supply gaps and, at times, shortages at the retail level despite adequate stock being available in the system.

With prices now set to move daily in line with international benchmarks, this pattern of anticipatory hoarding or withholding is expected to end.

 Since price movements will track the market in near real time, there would be little incentive to delay lifting or manipulate supply based on an upcoming revision, allowing for a more stable and predictable supply chain.

The change is also expected to resolve inventory gain-and-loss issues that OMCs and dealers faced under the old system, where holding stock through a weekly-long pricing cycle exposed them to sudden valuation swings. Daily adjustments would smooth this out, aligning inventory value more closely with prevailing market rates on any given day.

For consumers, the shift is expected to reduce the shock associated with large, infrequent price revisions. Rather than absorbing a lump-sum change once every week, consumers would instead see smaller, incremental movements.

In a stable international market, the day-on-day difference would be marginal, while even in a volatile market, daily swings are expected to remain in the range of Rs2 to Rs3, according to Industry sources, a considerably softer adjustment than the sharp jumps witnessed under the previous mechanism.

Taken together, it is believed the daily pricing model addresses a core weakness of the earlier system: that supply decisions were being driven by price anticipation rather than actual market demand.

With that link removed, the retail fuel market is expected to function on a more transparent and stable footing for OMCs, dealers and consumers alike.

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