China export growth hits six-month low

September 08, 2025 (MLN): China’s shipments to the U.S. plunged 33% in August while overall exports growth slowed to its weakest level in six months, as President Donald Trump’s policy targeting transshipments weighed on exports and businesses’ frontloading activity lost momentum.

Imports from the U.S. also dropped 16% from a year ago, customs data showed.

China’s total exports climbed 4.4% in August in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday, marking their lowest growth since February while missing Reuters-polled economists’ estimates for a 5.0% rise.

That growth slowed from the prior two months, in part reflecting the statistical effect of a high base last year when China’s exports grew at their fastest pace in nearly one-and-a-half years.

Imports rose 1.3% last month from a year ago, missing Reuters estimates for a 3% growth, as CNBC reported.

Imports rose for a third straight month after returning to growth in June, albeit still muted due to the persistent real estate slump, rising job insecurity, among other things.

China has increasingly relied on alternative markets, particularly Southeast Asia and European Union nations, Africa and Latin America, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy has pressured U.S.-bound shipments.

Nonetheless, no one country has come close to the U.S. which remains China’s largest trading partner on a single-country basis, absorbing $283 billion of Chinese goods this year as of August.

Exports to the EU stood at $541bn over the same period.

Beijing and Washington on Aug. 11 agreed to extend their tariff truce by another 90 days, locking in place U.S. tariffs of around 55% on Chinese imports and 30% Chinese duties on U.S. goods, according to Peterson Institute for International Economist.

But bilateral talks appear to be struggling to reach a breakthrough, with a late-August visit to Washington by top Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang yielding little progress.

Chinese exporters have relied on routing shipments to third countries to sidestep U.S. tariffs a tactic that is facing the test of tightening U.S. scrutiny over the so-called transshipments, which analysts have warned could weigh on Chinese exports in the coming months.

The U.S. in July announced a 40% tariff on any shipments that Washington determines to be transshipped.

An exports-oriented private survey RatingDog purchasing managers’ index showed China’s manufacturing activity sharply beat expectations in August, boosted by a recovery in new export orders, suggesting resilient external demand.

China is set to release two closely monitored inflation gauges later this week, including the consumer price index and producer price index.

Goldman Sachs expects the PPI inflation to remain “deeply negative,” falling 2.9% year on year, with the month-on-month reading to turn positive on the back of Beijing’s “anti-involution” policies aimed at reducing excessive price-cutting and the recent increases in upstream raw material prices.

The Wall Street bank forecasts headline CPI inflation to be “moderately negative,” falling 0.2% last month from a year ago.

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