Goldman Sachs cuts 2026 oil price forecast to under $60

April 07, 2025 (MLN): Higher risks of recessions and higher-than-expected OPEC+ production prompted Goldman Sachs to slash again its oil price forecasts for 2026, days after it had already cut its price outlook in the wake of the U.S. tariffs announcement last week.

Goldman Sachs’s analysts issued a new note dated April 6, in which they slashed their 2026 oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel—to $58 for Brent Crude prices and to $55 for the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude.

On Friday, Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5% for Brent crude and by 4.3% for West Texas Intermediate, citing the OPEC+ decision to boost production in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed.

The bank also revised down its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9% to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3% to $59 per barrel.

Two days later, Goldman Sachs slashed the forecasts again and now expects Brent Crude to average below $60 per barrel next year, at $58, amid recession risks, slowing demand, and more supply from the OPEC+ producers.

The investment bank had previously forecasted oil demand growth at 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) this year. Now it sees the growth at half this figure, at 300,000 bpd.

There is a chance of oil prices rising from current levels—if the U.S. backs down from the tariffs, according to the bank.

“Oil prices would likely exceed our forecast if the Administration were to reverse tariffs sharply and deliver a reassuring message to markets, consumers, and businesses,” Goldman’s analysts wrote in the April 6 note carried by Reuters.

Goldman Sachs last week raised the recession odds to 45% over the next 12 months, up from a 35% chance of a recession estimated previously.

Goldman’s analysts cited “a sharp tightening in financial conditions, foreign consumer boycotts, and a continued spike in policy uncertainty that is likely to depress capital spending by more than we had previously assumed.”

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