AI Revolution: WTO predicts Global Trade to surge 37% and GDP 13% by 2040

October 09, 2025 (MLN): The World Trade Organization (WTO) has projected that the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) could significantly reshape the global economy over the next 15 years, potentially increasing global trade and economic output at an unprecedented pace.

According to the World Trade Report 2025, global trade in goods and services could expand by 34% to 37%, while world GDP may rise by 12% to 13% by 2040.

The report emphasizes that the largest growth will come from digitally delivered services, including AI-powered solutions, which are forecast to surge by nearly 42%.

However, the WTO cautions that these gains are not guaranteed. The extent of global economic transformation will depend heavily on investment in digital infrastructure, open trade policies, and international cooperation on data governance.

The WTO modeled several potential outcomes based on how quickly developing economies enhance their digital infrastructure.

In the baseline scenario, advanced economies will see the strongest impact, with income levels rising by around 14%.

Middle-income countries are expected to grow by 11%, while low-income nations could see gains of about 8%.

If poorer countries accelerate their digital infrastructure investments, their growth could rise to 11%, and under a high AI adoption scenario, up to 15%.

In that case, growth across all income groups advanced, middle, and low-income could level out at around 14%, narrowing the economic gap.

To better assess global readiness, the WTO has introduced a new AI Trade Policy Openness Index (AI-TPOI), evaluating 108 economies on how supportive their trade policies are toward AI-related goods, services and data flows.

The study reveals that middle-income economies impose the strictest barriers, particularly on digital services and data transfers, while tariffs on AI-related goods vary sharply.

In some low-income countries, they reach as high as 45%, hindering access to emerging technologies.

The WTO identifies data as the central resource powering AI innovation and global trade. A 10% rise in digital services trade is associated with a 2.6% increase in cross-border AI patent references, highlighting how knowledge exchange and open data flows drive innovation.

However, the report warns that fragmented regulations on data transfers could slow progress by restricting access to cloud infrastructure and training datasets both critical for developing robust AI ecosystems.

The adoption of AI is expected to lead to moderate but broad-based employment shifts.

Overall, real wages are projected to rise across all skill groups, while the wage gap between high and low skilled workers could narrow by 3% to 4%.

Interestingly, low-skilled employment may see the fastest growth rising by 3% to 4%, compared with just 1% to 2% for medium and high-skilled jobs.

However, the report notes that AI infrastructure requires massive energy resources. Major AI hubs can consume over 100 megawatts equivalent to the annual electricity demand of around 100,000 households.

While advanced economies are rapidly investing in AI data centers and digital infrastructure, developing countries face challenges due to limited funding and weaker energy systems.

The WTO urges global cooperation to ensure equitable benefits from AI-driven trade growth.

Earlier, Kazinform News Agency reported that world merchandise trade is projected to grow by 0.9% in 2025, setting the stage for a longer-term transformation driven by AI and digital technologies.

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