Petrol prices set to drop by over Rs11, HSD heads for hike

July 03, 2026 (MLN): Consumers in Pakistan can expect mixed local fuel prices in the upcoming fortnightly review, with petrol prices projected to drop by Rs11.54 per litre while High-Speed Diesel (HSD) faces an increase of Rs4.21 per litre based on global market movements.

Data indicate that the ex-refinery price of Premium Motor Gasoline (PMG/petrol) has declined due to lower international free-on-board (FOB) costs and reduced premiums.

The ex-refinery price fell from Rs210.98 to Rs199.44 per litre during the tracking period.

Conversely, HSD consumers are looking at a potential price hike. The derived ex-refinery cost for diesel rose from Rs210.52 to Rs214.73 per litre, driven by a $ 2.43-per-barrel increase in international FOB prices.

These expected changes come on the heels of a recent structural overhaul by the federal government at the start of the new fiscal year.

Effective July 1, the Ministry of Energy (Petroleum Division) increased the Climate Support Levy (CSL) on both petrol and HSD by Rs2.50 per litre, raising it to Rs5.00 per litre.

The CSL also now applies to HOBC (97 RON) and furnace oil, while remaining exempt for kerosene and light diesel oil.

To keep current retail fuel prices steady at Rs299.50 per litre for petrol and Rs311.47 per litre for HSD, the government lowered the Petroleum Levy (PL) by an identical Rs2.50 per litre.

This adjustment brought the PL down from Rs66.64 to Rs64.14 per litre for petrol, and from Rs79.54 to Rs77.04 per litre for HSD.

While this revenue-neutral levy shuffle kept retail rates locked on July 1, the international price variances mean a divergence in retail pricing is highly probable at the next review, barring any further changes to government margins or exchange rate adjustments.

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