Petrol likely to hold firm, diesel prices rise

January 31, 2026 (MLN): Prices of High-Speed Diesel (HSD) in Pakistan are expected to increase sharply in the upcoming fortnight, while Motor Spirit (MS/petrol) prices are likely to remain broadly unchanged, following a rise in international oil prices and higher diesel market spreads.

HSD prices are projected to rise by Rs11.11 per litre, taking the expected price to Rs268.19 per litre for the period February 1–15, 2026, according to the AHL Research.

The increase came amid a 5.4% fortnight-on-fortnight rise in average Brent crude prices, driven largely by escalating geopolitical tensions.

Average Brent crude prices climbed to $66.04/bbl during January 16–29, compared to $62.63/bbl in the previous fortnight.

While Arab Light crude also rose nearly 4% over the same period.

In addition to higher crude prices, elevated diesel spreads and premiums have further strengthened the case for an upward revision in HSD prices.

In contrast, petrol (MS) prices are expected to remain stable, with a marginal decline of Rs0.04 per litre, keeping the expected price at Rs253.21 per litre.

The stability in MS prices to narrowing petrol spreads, which have offset the impact of higher international crude prices.

Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee appreciated by around 2.3% during the review period, with the average exchange rate improving to Rs280.30/$ from Rs286.62/$ previously.

The currency gain has partially cushioned the impact of rising global oil prices on domestic fuel costs.

Overall, while petrol consumers may see little change at the pump, diesel users particularly in transport, agriculture, and industry are likely to face higher fuel costs in the next pricing cycle if current trends persist.

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