Pakistan's power generation rises over 1% in FY26

July 21, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan's total power generation climbed to 128,700 GWh in FY26, up 1.2% from 127,160 GWh in FY25, driven mainly by higher output from imported coal, RFO and wind.

On a monthly basis, generation in Jun'26 stood at 13,430 GWh, down 2.3% year-on-year but up 6.3% from May'26, as seasonal summer demand began to build.

The annual decline was led by lower hydel output, while the sequential recovery was driven by stronger RLNG-based dispatch, according to AL Habib Capital Markets (AHCML), based on data sourced from NEPRA .

Imported coal-based generation rose 51.6% YoY on a cumulative basis, followed by RFO which surged 153.5% and wind which grew 16.6%, emerging as the key contributors to FY26's overall growth.

Hydel generation totaled 5,242 GWh in Jun'26, declining 3.1% YoY but rising 24.7% MoM as water inflows normalized following the seasonal snowmelt peak in the previous month.

Despite the yearly drop, hydel remained the single largest source of electricity, making up roughly a third of the country's generation mix.

Nuclear generation increased 30.2% YoY to 1,800 GWh in Jun'26 and stayed broadly flat on a monthly basis, supported by the restoration of Chashma-IV, which contributed 144 GWh during the month compared with just 6 GWh in May'26.

Imported coal-based generation rose to 1,699 GWh, up 21.6% YoY while holding broadly steady MoM (-0.8%).

This lifted imported coal's share in the generation mix to 12.7% from 10.2% a year earlier, led by China Hub Power Generation Company (CHPGC), whose dispatch rose to 163 GWh at a 17% load factor, compared with 74.7 GWh at an 8% load factor in the same month last year.

RLNG-based generation stood at 1,480 GWh, largely unchanged from 1,493 GWh in May'26, supported by the procurement of four LNG spot cargoes during the month.

Generation was still 33.2% lower YoY, reflecting continued moderation in RLNG utilization versus last year's elevated base.

Local coal generation fell to 1,358 GWh, down 10% YoY and 7.9% MoM, mainly due to lower dispatch from Thar Coal Block-I and Engro Powergen Thar, where output eased to 682.7 GWh (from 756.3 GWh in May'26) and 323.9 GWh (from 359 GWh), respectively.

Gas-based generation declined to 867 GWh, down 10.4% YoY and 17.4% MoM, while wind power jumped 29.5% YoY and 1.7% MoM on favorable seasonal conditions.

Solar posted modest growth of 3.8% YoY but slipped 7.6% MoM.

Fuel Cost Adjustment turns positive on higher RLNG costs

The base fuel cost for Jun'26 was recorded at Rs8.99/kWh, with the effective fuel cost after transmission losses and prior-period adjustments at Rs8.91/kWh, exceeding the reference fuel cost of Rs7.71/kWh set for the month.

This resulted in a Fuel Cost Adjustment (FCA) of Rs1.20/kWh, to be passed on to consumers in the Aug'26 billing cycle.

The variance was primarily driven by a sharp rise in RLNG cost, which reached Rs35.51/kWh, up 62.4% YoY and 15.9% MoM, prompting greater reliance on imported and local coal-based generation.

Hydel's 39% share in the national generation mix, along with its 24.7% MoM recovery, partially cushioned the rise in average fuel cost.

Generation Mix (GWh)

Source: NEPRA, AHCML Research

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