NAC trims FY26 GDP growth to 3.65%; Q4 slows to 2.0%

October 19, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.65% in FY26, slightly below the previously estimated 3.70%, while GDP growth stood at 2% in the fourth quarter, according to updated national accounts estimates approved by the National Accounts Committee (NAC).

The revised estimates place the size of Pakistan’s economy at Rs126.4 trillion, equivalent to $450.4 billion, in FY26, compared with Rs114.9 trillion ($408.7bn) in FY25. Per capita income reached Rs531,897, or $1,896, during the year.

The committee also revised GDP growth for FY25 to 3.11% from the earlier estimate of 3.18%.

Sector-wise, agriculture grew by 3.50% in FY26, compared with the previous estimate of 2.89%. Industrial growth was revised downward to 3.34% from 3.51%, while services growth declined to 3.81% from 4.09%.

Within agriculture, growth in important crops improved to 1.59% from 0.65%, while other crops recorded growth of 4.28%, compared with the earlier estimate of 2.43%.

The improvement in other crops reflected higher production of pulses, fruits, tomatoes, oilseeds and green fodder. Livestock growth was revised slightly downward to 3.71% from 3.75%.

Industrial growth was affected by a downward revision in large-scale manufacturing (LSM) growth to 5.01% from 6.11%. However, mining and quarrying growth improved to 1.52% from 0.38%, while construction growth increased to 6.30% from 5.73%, supported by higher public-sector construction expenditure.

Among manufacturing groups, automobiles recorded growth of 57.77%, followed by transport equipment at 42.36%, furniture at 22.69%, electrical equipment at 14.25%, rubber products at 14.19%, tobacco at 12.61%, petroleum products at 9.70% and food at 7.03%.

In contrast, pharmaceuticals contracted by 8.87%, iron and steel products by 7.84%, chemicals by 2.53% and leather products by 1.95%.

Electricity, gas and water supply continued to weigh on industrial activity, contracting by 10.24% in FY26, although the decline was narrower than the previously estimated 10.63%.

In the services sector, wholesale and retail trade growth was revised to 2.37% from 3.71%, showing lower manufacturing and imports. Transportation and storage growth improved to 3.23% from 2.31%, while information and communication growth increased to 9.53% from 7.52%.

Financial and insurance activities also recorded stronger growth of 4.23%, compared with the previous estimate of 0.32%. Meanwhile, public administration and social security grew by 5.67%, education by 4.17%, and human health and social work activities by 5.52%.

The NAC also approved revised quarterly GDP growth estimates for the first three quarters of FY26. Growth in Q1 was adjusted slightly downward to 3.89% from 3.92%, while Q2 growth was revised upward to 4.31% from 4.05% and Q3 growth to 4.42% from 3.99%.

The economy recorded 2% growth in Q4 FY26, compared with 6.07% in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal year, reflecting a high base effect.

During Q4, agriculture grew by 3.71%, while services expanded by 3.62%. In contrast, industry contracted by 4.70%, compared with growth of 20% in the same quarter last year.

Within industry, mining and quarrying grew by 8.90%, large-scale manufacturing by 0.41% and construction by 3.52%. However, electricity, gas and water supply contracted by 33.19%, attributed to lower subsidies, a high deflator and the exceptionally high base effect of 123.03%.

In services, information and communication led growth with an expansion of 15.03%, followed by health and social work activities at 6.14%, public administration and social security at 5.46%, and other private services at 4%.

The 118th NAC meeting was held at the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics headquarters in Islamabad under the chairmanship of the Secretary of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives.

The committee approved revised national accounts estimates incorporating updated import data for FY21 to FY25, alongside revised quarterly and annual GDP growth figures for FY25 and FY26.

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