Pakistan faces 22% water shortage in upcoming Rabi season

October 07, 2026 (MLN): Pakistan is likely to face an overall water shortage of 22% during the upcoming Rabi season, with Punjab and Sindh expected to bear the full impact of the shortfall, according to the Indus River System Authority (IRSA).

The estimate was approved by IRSA’s Advisory Committee during a meeting convened to review expected water availability and formulate provincial allocations for Rabi crops.

The country is projected to have 29.183 million acre-feet (MAF) of water available during the Rabi season, while river inflows are estimated at 21.268 MAF.

Under the approved distribution, Punjab is expected to receive 15.564 MAF, followed by Sindh with 11.748 MAF. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been allocated 701,000 acre-feet, while Balochistan will receive 1.171 MAF.

IRSA expects Punjab and Sindh to face a 22% water shortage during the season.

The outlook follows a weaker Kharif season, during which river inflows totaled 95.444 MAF, down 22% from the previous year and 7% below the 10-year average.

Water stored in the country’s reservoirs stood at 9.343 MAF as of September 30, according to IRSA.

Meanwhile, releases downstream of the Kotri Barrage during the Kharif season amounted to 14 MAF.

The authority also approved the closure of Chashma Barrage for 21 days from December 26 to January 14 under the annual provincial canal closure program.

IRSA has further directed the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) to expedite work on the Tarbela 4th Extension and Tarbela 5th Extension projects.

According to IRSA, delays in completing the two projects have contributed to water shortages faced by the provinces during the Kharif season.

The projected Rabi water shortfall could put additional pressure on agricultural production, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, which are among the country’s major agricultural regions. The Rabi season includes wheat and other crops planted following the Kharif harvest.

IRSA is responsible for coordinating water distribution among Pakistan’s provinces under the country’s water-sharing arrangements, with its seasonal assessments forming the basis for provincial water allocations.

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