Oil falls to $104, supply outlook offsets Hormuz fears

October 15, 2026 (MLN): Oil prices declined on Thursday as traders evaluated the potential impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, following attacks on vessels in the strategic waterway, while assessing the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest outlook for global oil markets.

Currently, Brent crude futures is down, 1.67%, at $104.36 per barrel, according to data by Mettis Global.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures is down by $0.56, or 0.59%, to $93.97 per barrel by [10:20 am] PST.

Concerns over an escalation in Middle East tensions intensified after a Singapore-registered vessel sank in the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears that the conflict could persist. Singapore’s maritime authority condemned the incident, describing the attacks as unprovoked, unjustifiable and a violation of international law.

Meanwhile, Iran warned that it was “counting the moments” before it could begin striking U.S. warships, adding to uncertainty surrounding the region’s security situation.

The IEA’s October oil market report, released Wednesday, warned that tight conditions in diesel markets could persist well into next year. The agency also highlighted the risk that fresh attacks on Saudi Arabia could undermine the recovery in global oil supplies.

Despite the geopolitical risks, potential measures to increase available supplies have weighed on prices. The Trump administration is considering easing sanctions on vessels operating in the so-called shadow fleet, which transports oil and petroleum products from countries including Russia, Reuters reported.

Firas Bechwaty, head of business development at online trading platform ICM, said the lack of progress in U.S.-Iran diplomacy offered little immediate hope of a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

However, continued Saudi crude shipments through alternative routes and accelerated emergency stock releases by IEA member countries are helping cushion the market against supply disruptions, Bechwaty noted.

These measures have limited the upward pressure on prices despite persistent geopolitical tensions and uncertainty over the security of critical oil transit routes.

Copyright Mettis Link News