MPC: How the SBP’s language has changed over 21 years

October 26, 2026 (MLN): The State Bank of Pakistan now talks very differently about inflation, risk and the exchange rate than it did in the mid-2000s, a Mettis Global review of its monetary policy communication shows.

Monetary Policy Statements by the SBP published between July 2005 and September 2026, were analysed and tracked how often key terms appear against the policy rate.

The biggest shift is towards inflation expectations. The term appears about five times as often in statements since 2017 as in 2005–2016, measured per 10,000 words. “Core inflation” and “current account” are now mentioned almost three times as often, and “real interest rate” more than four times as often.

Other terms have faded. “Exchange rate”, once a regular feature, did not appear in any of the six statements issued in 2026. “Vigilant”, used between 2006 and 2014, has not appeared since July 2014. “Cautious” returned in March 2024 after a decade’s absence, as the SBP prepared to start easing from its 22% peak.

The language also tracks the rate cycle. Covid-related terms dominated the 2020 statements, while “accommodative” peaked in 2021. Mentions of the Middle East and geopolitics surged in 2026, after the SBP raised the policy rate by 100 basis points to 11.5% in April. It said it was “necessary to maintain a tighter policy stance to keep inflation expectations anchored”.

The policy rate has moved from 9% in 2005 to a low of 5.75% in 2016–17, up to a record 22% in 2023–24, and stands at 11.5% ahead of today’s MPC decision.

Word counts are based on the full text of SBP Monetary Policy Statements (English) and compared per 10,000 words. 

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