Business confidence slips to 49.1 in September

September 14, 2026 (MLN): Overall Business Confidence Index (BCI) fell by 0.5 points to 49.1 in September 2026, the latest results of the Business Confidence Survey (BCS), conducted by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) in collaboration with the Institute of Business Administration (IBA), showed.

The survey was conducted during September 01-11, 2026, with a total of 477 respondents, showing confidence declining across both the Industry and Services sectors.

The BCI for the Industry sector eased by 0.3 points to 48.5, while the Services sector BCI slipped by 0.6 points to 49.3.

Current Business Confidence

The Current Business Confidence Index (CBCI), which shows general economic conditions over the past six months, eased by 0.2 points to 46.5 in September 2026.

Expected Business Confidence

The Expected Business Confidence Index (EBCI), which captures businesses' outlook for economic and business conditions over the next six months, fell by 0.8 points to 51.7 in September 2026.

Purchasing Managers Index

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose by 2.7 points to 53.2 in September 2026, remaining above the neutral threshold.

Among its sub-components, Business Activity rose to 52.0, Total Employees increased to 50.1, Order Books climbed to 51.7, Raw Material Purchases edged up to 57.7, and Speed of Suppliers' Delivery improved to 54.6  with all components of the PMI recording increases.

Inflation Expectations

Businesses' inflation expectations inched up in September 2026 to 7.7 at the aggregate level, up from 6.9 in the previous wave.

The proportion of businesses expecting higher prices rose to 69.8% from 68.9% in the previous wave.

At the sector level, inflation expectations in the Industry sector rose from 67.8% to 69.5%, while the Services sector edged up from 69.9% to 70.1%.

Employment

Employment sentiment was mixed in September 2026.

The Current Employment Index fell to 48.9 from 50.1 in August, moving below the neutral mark. The Expected Employment Index improved, rising to 53.1 from 52.2 in August.

Capacity Utilization

The Average Current Capacity Utilization (ACCU) of the Manufacturing sector eased to 64.8% in September 2026 from 65.6% in the previous wave, changing only marginally.

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