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Key Pakistan Market Stats and Economic Indicators

Market Data and Economic Indicators

Weekly Performance
 Jul 10, 2020Jul 03, 2020
PKR InterBank166.3525166.211
KSE100 Index36,190.4035,051.38
Avg Daily Volume348,797,285250,739,223
Gold (Karachi) Rs/10 gm93,36489,850
KIBOR 6M6.786.88
10Y PIB8.728.65
EUR1.12991.1243
GBP1.26211.2484
CHF0.94120.9454
JPY106.89107.411
GOLD1798.221774.74
NY Light Crude40.5740.58
Open Market Rates
 Jul 10, 2020Jul 03, 2020
USD168.00168.00
EUR189.97188.61
GBP212.21207.44
JPY1.57261.5685
AED45.7845.78
SAR44.8244.79
SBP Data
T-Bill Auction Cutoff YieldJun 30, 2020Jun 17, 2020
3M6.84887.7999
6M6.65997.4847
12M6.85007.3600
PIB Auction Cutoff YieldJun 24, 2020May 28, 2020
3Y7.97007.6400
5Y8.44008.0500
10Y8.99008.6900
15Y9.90009.9699
20Y10.5100Bids Rejected
Interest Rate CorridorJun 26, 2020May 18, 2020
SBP Policy Rate7.008.00
SBP Reverse Repo Rate8.009.00
SBP Repo Rate6.007.00
Weekly Indicators
 Jul 03, 2020Jun 26, 2020
SBP FX Reserves *12,041.6011,231.00
Bank FX Reseves *6,748.506,740.00
Total FX Reserves *18,790.1017,971.00
 Jul 09, 2020Jul 02, 2020
SPI (Combined Group) **133.62132.32
Change - WoW (pct)0.982.29
Change - YOY (pct)11.029.77
Monthly Indicators
 JuneMay
Consumer Price Index (Base 2015-16)132.08131.01
Change - MOM (pct)0.820.32
Change - YOY (pct)8.598.22
WholeSale Price Index (Base 2015-16)135.80136.23
Change - MOM (pct)-0.32-2.08
Change - YOY (pct)0.931.50
Sensitive Price Indicator (Base 2015-16)128.46127.76
Change - MOM (pct)0.551.70
Change - YOY (pct)9.339.58
 JuneMay
Exports *1,592.001,396.00
Imports *3,715.002,863.00
Trade Balance *-2,123.00-1,467.00
 MayApril
Home Remittances *1,872.861,790.03
 MayApril
Total Foreign Investment *9.44-511.54
Quarterly Indicators
 Mar 31, 2020Dec 31, 2019
Pakistan's External Debt *109,948.92110,719.33
Annual Indicators
 FY20FY19
GDP Growth Rate-0.381.91
Agriculture2.670.58
Manufacturing-0.275.43
Commodity Sector-0.05-0.90
Services Sector-0.593.75
Trade Balance * (July - June)-23,183.00-31,805.00
Worker Remittances * (July - May)20,654.4820,103.03
Foreign Investment * (July - May)1,873.58-132.61
Annual Inflation Rate % (July - June)10.746.80
* Amount in USD Million

 

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Weekly Economic Roundup

July 12, 2020 (MLN): The financial snapshot of the country is brought to light with the economic and financial data releases over the course of the week.

  • The Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Combined Group increased by 0.98% during the week ended Jul 09, 2020 while the SPI increased by 11.02% compared to the corresponding period from last year.

  • The foreign investors took a step back from investing in local markets, as the total purchase of securities via Specially Convertible Rupee Accounts (SCRA) stood at Rs.11.1 billion, which is 45.9 percent lower than the prior week.

  • Pakistan witnessed an inflow of $15.11 million by foreign investors via Special Convertible Rupee Account (SCRA) in government debt securities in the first three days of FY21.

  • Pakistan's Forex Reserves increased by USD 819.10 Million or 4.56% and the total liquid foreign reserves held by the country stood at USD 18,790.10 Million on Jul 03, 2020.

  • Under the refinance scheme, SBP has lowered the end-user mark-up rates from existing 7% to 5%.

  • Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) as operator with (56.45% share), Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL) (28.55%) & Government Holdings (Private) Limited (GHPL) (15%) in a joint venture of Mela Drilling & Production Lease (D&PL) Block has successfully tested, completed, injected development well Mela # 07 into the production stream.

  • In the month of June 2020, the total deposits held by commercial banks have increased to Rs 16.22 trillion, depicting a growth of 12% YoY and 5% MoM. The same is up by 11% YTD.

  • The total money supply circulating within the economy in May 2020 has been recorded at around Rs.24.196 trillion, according to provisional accounts on Monetary Aggregates for the month, maintained by the State Bank of Pakistan.

  • The export remittances from the IT & ITES sector have jumped to $1.11 billion, showing a growth of 21% & fetching over a billion dollars in foreign exchange during Jul-MayFY20.

  • The government of Pakistan has acquired an additional debt of Rs.206.68 billion during the week ended June 19, 2020, which brings its total net borrowing for ongoing fiscal year 2020 to Rs.2228.41 billion. As of prior week, the government had borrowed a net sum of Rs.2021.73 billion.

  • The non-government sector has borrowed another net sum of Rs.28.38 billion during the week ended June 26, 2020, which brings the cumulative net borrowing for ongoing fiscal year FY2020 to Rs.306.3 billion. The net borrowing as of prior week was recorded at Rs.277.92 billion.

  • According to official data, the price of cotton in Punjab has fallen by Rs. 400 to Rs. 8,600 per maund, while the price in Sindh has fallen by Rs. 150 to Rs. 8,350 rupees per maund.

  • Punjab government is providing a sixty percent subsidy on the installation of sprinkle or drip irrigation systems to farmers of the province for the year 2020-21.

  • The government has released funds amounting to Rs287.289 million during the last fiscal year to execute seven petroleum projects under the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP 2019-20) against the total allocation of Rs 304.997 million.

  • After posting a decrease for three consecutive months, cement despatches increased by 29.94 percent in June 2020 to 4.623 million tons from 3.557 million tons in June 2019, ending the fiscal year 2019-20 on a positive note.

  • Sazgar Engineering Works Limited has released the Production and Sales data for its three-wheelers, including Auto Rickshaw for the month of June 2020.

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Weekly SPI Increases by 0.98 Percent

July 10, 2020 (MLN): The Weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the Combined Group increased by 0.98% during the week ended Jul 09, 2020 while the SPI increased by 11.02% compared to the corresponding period from last year.

According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) the Combined Index was at 133.62 compared to 132.32 on Jul 02, 2020 while the index was recorded at 120.36 a year ago, on Jul 11, 2019

Out of the 51 monitored items, the average price of 18 items increased, 11 items decreased whereas 22 items registered no change during the week.

The weekly SPI percentage change by income groups showed that SPI increased across all quantiles ranging between 0.86% and 1.27%.

The Lowest Income Group witnessed a weekly increase of 1.27% while the highest income group recorded an increase of 0.86%.

On an yearly basis, analysis of SPI change across different income segments showed that SPI increased across all quantiles ranging between 9.43% and 14.33%.

Yearly SPI for the Lowest Income Group increased by 14.33% while the highest income group recorded an increase of 9.43%.

The average price of Sona urea stood at Rs.1637 per 50 kg bag which is 0.37% higher than last week’s price and 16.69% lower when compared to last year.

Meanwhile, average Cement price was recorded at Rs.551 per 50 kg bag, which is 0.55% higher than the previous week and 12.4% lower than prices last year.

 

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Nishat Chunian gets the approval for Scheme of Compromises,...

July 10, 2020 (MLN): Nishat (Chunian) Limited (NCL), via notification to Exchange has informed that the Honorable Lahore High Court has approved the Scheme for Compromises, Arrangement and Reconstruction between NCL and its wholly owned subsidiary NC Electric Company Limited (NCECL).

However, the notification stated that two of the changes that were resolved in Extra Ordinary General Meeting were inadvertently left out in the Court Order and in this regard, management has filed an application for correction of the order. Changes resolved by the shareholders were as follows:

  1. The effective date of merger be changed from July 1st to 30th June 2020.
  2. The authorized Share Capita of NCECL be merged with Authorized Share Capital of NCL

 

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PIA – An earth bound misfit?

July 10, 2020 (MLN): Pakistan International Airlines’ (PIA) ‘fake license’ controversy has taken a surprising yet much-deserved toll on the aviation sector, as several countries have reacted to the scandal by imposing restrictions on the national carrier’s international movement.

For the unversed, the government had discovered as many as 262 out of the total 860 pilots to have fake licenses, the information of which was made available to the public. Following this revelation, the government had dismissed around 28 pilots, with stern disciplinary and criminal proceedings ongoing against the remaining fake license holders. 

While the motive to openly publicize the fake license scandal was to show the citizens how the government was doing its best to revive the national carrier, the gesture quickly backfired as not only PIA, but the government too saw itself at the receiving end of an endless backlash from domestic as well as international spectators.

The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) was the first international body to react to this controversy, as it barred PIA from flying into most of Europe for the next six months. The ‘validity of the Pakistani pilot licenses’ and ‘incapability of the state of the operator to certify and oversee its aircraft as per international standards’ were some of the reasons put forth by the EASA for banning PIA into its district.

Not only this, several countries that had hired Pakistani Pilots in their national airlines, such as Malaysia and Vietnam, also took strict actions and grounded their Pakistani employees over the fake license case. Similarly, the United Kingdom Civil Aviation Authority withdrew PIA’s permit to operate from three of its airports, whereas the United Arab Emirates sought to verify the credentials of its Pakistani pilots and engineers.

The latest country to follow the suit has been the United States, as the U.S. Department of Transportation has revoked permission for PIA to conduct charter flights to the country, citing Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) concerns over Pakistani pilot certifications.

Despite the backlash and strict actions that have transpired out of this situation, the Prime Minister Imran Khan has been lauded by many for being on the front foot and tackling the problem of corruption heads on, to ensure the sanctity of the aviation industry and safety of the passengers.

It may have gone unnoticed by many that the state has handled the embarrassment part very smarty, by giving it a political angle. The concerned authorities, while putting forth the facts pertaining to the issuance of fake licenses, pointed out that most of the suspected cases were issued licenses from 2012 to 2018, a time when Imran Khan was not even the Prime Minister.

Some of the prominent figures within the cabinet have even tried to cover for the Prime Minister by stating that the ‘probe was not a leak, but something that the PM wanted to correct to ensure aviation safety for the citizens’.

On the other hand, some believe that the scandal has put the jobs of several Pakistani pilots across the globe at stake. The sudden urge to free PIA from years of embedded corruption comes hardly two months after the infamous plane crash, which shows how desperate the government is to distract the citizens from the main issue.

Sor far, the actions that have been taken by the Aviation Ministry, besides the dismissal of the fake license holders, include suspension of five CAA officers who were responsible for issuing the fake licenses. The investigation over the case is still underway, and the ministry is doing its utmost best to ensure PIA’s compliance with international standards.  Whatever the case may be, the country has indeed suffered a lot in terms of global humiliations and restrictions, something that would take a lot of time and effort to fix.

Several concerns are also being raised over PIA’s financial well-being and future earnings, as the scandal may have definitely steered away many of its exiting as well as potential customers. Now with the restrictions by some of the largest economies across the globe in place, the decline in earnings for at least the next six months is inevitable.  

It is pertinent to mention that PIA had earned an operating profit of Rs. 5 billion during the first quarter of the current year, i.e. 37% higher as compared to the corresponding period last year. The growth in the company’s earnings was a result of the deployment of extra capacity in high yield markets such as the United Kingdom, which also helped in negating the impact of additional costs arising from an increase in fuel prices and suspension of flights to India and the Far Eastern countries.

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