According to an analysis conducted by Credit Suisse there is rising possibility of an IMF bailout after election. The research also suggests that no single political party will be in a position to attain majority with the PTI coming out ahead of PML-N
Key Pointers from the report:
PTI to edge ahead of the PMl-N
No single party looks to be in position to attain majority
Electoral prospects of PTI brightened
Ousting of PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif has brightened PTI
PTI to bag 92 seats or 34 percent in national assembly
PTI eye 60% probability to form coalition government
Imran Khan may have to look towards the PPP to shore up the numbers
But chances of shaking hands with PPP is 15%
PML-N can secure 73 seats or 27% in national assembly
Rising possibility of an IMF bailout after election
Forex reserves down to less than 2 months of import cover
Current account deficit at record high of 16 billion dollars in 11 months
Pakistan to seek loan similar of 2013 of 6.3 billion dollars
Stock Market to welcome a healthy mandate
Stock market to rally by 8-10 percent post elections
PSX to hit 47000 points level by year end
Key Priorities for incoming Govt:
Take concrete measures on taxation and institutional reforms in first 100 days
Reforms to help maintain confidence in markets
Provide relief measures for agricultural sector
Provide incentives for exporters and inject funds for energy sector
According to the report, Key risks are a hung parliament or street agitation leading to a delay in elections.
