Power production jumps by 4% YoY in Jan’21 led by Hydel, RFO

March 9, 2021 (MLN): The overall power generation during the month of Jan’21 increased by 4% YoY to 8,079 Gwh compared to 70794 GWh produced in the same month last year, the latest data available on Nepra’s website revealed.

During the month, Power production through Hydel, RFO, and Coal jumped by 23%, 22%, and 2% YoY to 1,067 Gwh, 974 GWh, and 2,560 Gwh respectively. While generation through Gas-LNG decreased by 14% YoY to 2,250 Gwh during Jan’21.

On a monthly basis, the total power generation surged by 3% MoM during the month under review compared to Dec’20. This brings total generation for 7MFY21 to 76,126Gwh, up by 3% YoY primarily led by 17% and 6% YoY incline in production through RFO and Hydel, contributing 5% and 33% of the total power generation respectively while the contribution from Gas/LNG-based power generation is down to 32% as compared to 33% in 7MFY20.

According to the report by IGI Securities the growth in RFO based power generation was attributable to higher generation from KAPCO Block I, Lalpir, PakGen, Nishat Chunian, and Nishat Power, cumulatively adding 249Gwh. This brings total generation for 7MFY21 to 3,865Gwh, up by 17% YoY owing to higher generation from Atlas, KAPCO Block I, Attock Gen, Lalpir, Pakgen, Atlas, Nishat Chunian, and Nishat Power.

Meanwhile, 25 YoY rise in Coal-based power production was due to higher generation from CPHGC (up by 222Gwh) while generation from Engro, Coal-Fired Power plant and Port Qasim declined during the month of Jan-21. For 7MFY21, generation remained flat at 15,262Gwh led by higher generation from CPHGC while lower generation from other plants.

On the other hand,  the drop in Gas/LNG based power generation by 14% YoY (or 361Gwh) to 2,250 Gwh in Jan’21 was owing to lower generation from Haveli Bahadurshah (contributing 542Gwh), GENCO II (down by 298Gwh), and Orient/ Saif power (cumulatively down by 50Gwh), while generation from other smaller IPPs increased during the month of Jan-21. This brings total generation in 7MFY21 to 24,032Gwh down by 2%YoY led by lower generation from KAPCOII-III, GENCO I-III, Haveli Bahadurshah, and other smaller IPPs, the report said. 

With regards to generation cost, power cost on RFO during the month of Jan’21 is dropped by 10% YoY (or up by 1% MoM) to Rs 12.35 per kWh. However, gas price increased to Rs 7.62 per kWh up by 32% YoY while generation cost through LNG stood at Rs 8.32 per Kwh, down by 16% YoY or up 10% MoM. Moreover, for the month of Feb’21, international RFO (180cst bunker fuel) prices have averaged USD 353/ MT as compared to USD 319/MT in the preceding month.

With regards to the merit order list, the report highlighted that FO plants have moved up slightly in the merit in Jan’21 on account of rise in fuel cost of generation through gas, depleting gas reserves, and inability to secure LNG cargoes. All of RFO based plants moved up the merit order list except for Attock Gen and Kohinoor Energy. Cost of generation remained relatively mixed on monthly basis as Lalpir, Attock Gen, and Saba Power witnessed a rise in fuel cost, the report added.

Going forward, the report predicts that RFO plants are likely to remain up in the merit order list as summer approaches while generation through a gas is also likely to pick up as demand from the domestic sector reduces post winters. Moreover, generation through coal is likely to remain strong owing to the lowest cost of generation. Meanwhile, generation through LNG may gain further traction from 2022 onwards as a new LNG contract at lower prices comes into effect.

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Posted on: 2021-03-09T12:31:00+05:00