April 08, 2022 (MLN): After losing the court battle on the rejection of the no-confidence vote (NCV) by the speaker and dissolution of parliament, Prime Minister Imran Khan will likely face removal from his office this Saturday unless he chooses to resign from his office beforehand.
Now, all eyes are on tomorrow’s event where PM’s Khan ruling fortune will be decided.
Yesterday, the five-judge bench of the Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Umar Bandial unanimously ruled the National Assembly Deputy Speaker Qasim Suri’s move to block a no-confidence vote against PM was unconstitutional.
The court also nullified the dissolution of the National Assembly by the President on the advice of the PM and restored the NA to its position of 3rd April.
In response to this, PM Khan announced that he had called a cabinet meeting and would address the nation on Friday evening.
“My message to our nation is I have always & will continue to fight for Pak till the last ball,” he wrote on Twitter.
Political experts think that he may announce his resignation from assemblies or protest against the decision.
Last Sunday, the no-trust motion against Imran Khan was dismissed by the Deputy Speaker, terming it a contradiction of Article 5 of the Constitution.
In this 5-day saga of amplified political unrest, the economy had to bear the brunt as a number of economic challenges had been largely left unaddressed such as melting forex reserves, external pressure, a 2.22% or Rs4 depreciation of PKR, and a standstill of the IMF program along with KSE-100 index that recorded a plunge of 1,365 points.
It is prudent to note that the opposition has more than the 172 votes or 50% majority in the National Assembly necessary to oust Prime Minister Imran Khan and elect PML-N’s Shehbaz Sharif as the new Prime Minister who has a successful track record of running the Punjab province.
The key question for the new government is whether it will continue to run the government till the next general election scheduled in the next 1.5 years or will it carry out early elections? It is likely that the new government will carry out electoral reforms and then call early elections in a few months, a report by topline noted.
Given the economic challenges, the country is facing the stiff opposition that the Imran Khan-led PTI party may offer, prolonging the coalition government will not be easy, it added.
Along with the political challenges, the new prime minister’s immediate course of action will likely include stabilizing an ailing economy and repairing relations with the West.
Recently, IMF talks with Pakistan had been deferred due to political instability in the country. The new government will also face key economic challenges to deal with IMF. Miftah Ismail, former finance minister of the largest opposition party PML-N, in his recent interview stated that the new government will continue engagement with IMF but will try to renegotiate the program on softer terms, it further added.
Another key challenge for the new government will be the increase in fuel pump prices. The current government is already giving a fuel subsidy of around Rs60bn a month on petroleum products which is putting a drain on its fiscal account.
The unpopular measures like adjustment in gas and electricity tariffs will be a tough call for the new government.
The report believes that the import restricting policies will also continue in the new government as imports are rising at a rapid pace. Last day, SBP has already initiated the process by increasing the list of items that are subject to a 100% cash margin requirement to control imported inflation and support the balance of payments.
It will also be interesting to see if current SBP Governor Dr. Reza Baqir continues to hold his office. It is a general perception that the current governor has good terms with IMF, Umair Naseer at Topline said.
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